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2020年会发生金融危机吗?

网络虫虫 2020-01-02【金融经济】9899人已围观 收藏

简介近期市场非常悲观,和几个朋友聊天,都表示明年情况非常不乐观,甚至有金融危机的风险,而且明年的币圈,可能也表现非常低迷,今天就写一下...

近期市场非常悲观,和几个朋友聊天,都表示明年情况非常不乐观,甚至有金融危机的风险,而且明年的币圈,可能也表现非常低迷,今天就写一下这个话题。

 

金融危机百度百科:

是指金融资产、金融机构、金融市场的危机,具体表现为金融资产价格大幅下跌或金融机构倒闭或某个金融市场如股市或债市暴跌等。

系统性金融危机指的是那些波及整个金融体系乃至整个经济体系的危机,比如1930年西方经济的大萧条,2008年的美国次贷危机。

 

经济危机的前兆有哪些呢?

1、经济过热。都说股市是经济的晴雨表,经济过热的首要表现就是股票的暴涨。除了股市外,像CPI(居民消费价格指数)PMI(采购经理人指数)以及M2(广义货币供给量)等都是衡量宏观经济的重要指标。当经济过热时,以上指标均会上涨。

2、楼市暴涨。尤其是主要经济体国家,一旦地产过热,且没有能力化解风险,就难免会出现危机。日本就是一个典型的例子,卖掉东京可以买下一个美国的“段子是的确存在的。

1989年,日本泡沫经济的最高峰,一座东京都的地价就相当于美国全国的土地价格,房地产总值相当于日本GDP200%

3、金融空心化。经济脱实向虚,没有钱进入实体经济,而是在不断地炒高估值,然后卖给下一个买家。金融是现代经济的血液。但过度使用,也会产生相反的作用。

 

如果按照这个标准看:

国内最可能发生金融危机的年份,应该在2015--2017年,而不是现在,因为国内2015年中旬,股市暴涨到5000点,而2017年初,全国房地产价格达到了历史高点,社会一片亢奋,这个时候反而是最危险的。

经过201720182019年的连续回调、缓冲,2020年的经济状况,反而和经济危机前兆相去甚远,股市从5178点回调到2440点,腰斩之后,勉强回到3000点;一线城市的房价,距离2017年最高点,出现大幅回调,2019年是经济萧条时期的表现,而不是过热。

 

美国2019的情况,反而是非常接近金融危机的前兆,股市再度开启牛市,三大股指连续创出历史新高,美国的房地产价格也出现稳定回升,已经超过了2008年金融危机时的20%,美国的制造业、服务业大量外包,经济严重依赖金融市场,而且从201512月到2019812月的连续加息,更是让美国的资金流,也出现了短缺的状况。

如果情况这么发展下去,2020年爆发全球金融危机的源头,仍旧会是美国,而且最有可能出现危机的地方就是美股,一如2000年的互联网泡沫。

 

但是实际情况却是,各国政府在经济危机到来之前,已经开始了连续的货币和财政政策。

国内为了稳定经济形式,在货币政策方面,央行降准了3次,前期还降息了(下调了MLFOMO利率)。财政政策方面,今年减税降费力度空前,地方专项债发行力度已经加大。货币和财政政策都在发力,

 


美国方面,今年下半年,连续降息三次,9月份结束缩表,在回购利率飙升后,立即开始每月购买600亿美元的国债,开启新一轮的资产负债表计划。

事实上,这是自200812月启动首轮量化宽松以来,月度扩张速度最快的一次。为除年底危机,美联储即将注入5000亿美元流动性,放水规模之大实属史上罕见。

截至明年1月中旬,美联储的资产负债表规模将从目前的4.066万亿美元扩大到有史以来最高的4.5万亿美元。与此同时,在美联储的带领下,美、欧、日三大央行的资产负债表增长速度远超市场预期,预计到今年年底三大央行的资产负债表增长规模将达到每月近1000亿美元。货币政策刺激力度空前。

 

以往的历史规律是,在危机爆发后,国家才会动用这些刺激政策,挽救经济,但是这次经济衰退时,各国政府在危机前,提前用货币政策和财政政策刺激经济,防止经济危机的爆发。或许这和当前的贸易战也有联系,因为在对决的关键节点上,比的就是谁先倒下,维稳显得比任何一个时期都重要。

 

未来的货币政策,会逐渐向零利率、负利率过渡,但是大资金仍旧会偏向于谨慎,而不愿意大量放贷,这个时候,金融资产的边际效应会下降很快。优质资产,仍旧会是资金的首选,包括中国房地产市场和美国股市。


流动性短缺问题得到缓解后,黄金的表现会更好,数字货币市场,资金仍旧会向主流币,甚至向比特币集中。而普遍性的大牛市行情,仍旧需要一个重要的支持变量:美元的快速贬值带来的美元回流,会吸引新的流动性进入市场,因为牛市,一定需要巨量买盘的推动,现在还看不到,但是美元已经到了拐点附近。

所以,明年不用太悲观,甚至可以稍微乐观一点。

 

技术分析:

比特币BTC

比特币一周时间,波幅没有超过300美元,很乏味的行情行情处在阴跌走势中,但是抛压却是在减少,这对筑底非常有利

维持前期的判断,目前处在小c浪的行情中,时间长,很磨人,但是跌幅已经非常有限了,7000是心理关口,大概率要被破掉,未来重点看6800附近能否形成震荡之后的企稳反弹,这个位置或是趋势反转的拐点。


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      2022-08-28 17:45:33 回复

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